Well hello there!

It’s been a minute! Apologies, I’ve been immensely busy. We are doing some exciting stuff at my job at PRISM, there’s a war in the Middle East, and I’ve been TIRED (I’ve been out of town nearly every week since August! Zoinks Scooby!). Things are cooling down, though. So we should be returning to normal programming soon!

Again this week, I’m sharing a rundown of recent news related to the presidential campaign. People seemed to like it last time, so we will keep it going. This update covers about two weeks (the time since I last wrote a newsletter), so it’s quite long.

That’s all from me this week. There’s a lot below. Please enjoy it!

— Jonathan Terluk

Campaign updates

President López Obrador’s former finance minister joins Gálvez’s team

On October 24, Xóchitl Gálvez announced that President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s first finance minister, Carlos Urzúa, joined her team.

• Why it matters: Urzúa President López Obrador’s finance minister but only held the role for about seven months. He resigned over concerns about the president’s budget priorities.
• Urzua’s significance: Urzúa has significant expertise in the Mexican economy, and his government experience and past affiliation with Morena will benefit Gálvez's team.
• The intrigue: I wouldn’t expected Urzúa to be a pick to be Gálvez’s finance minister. There are a lot of people in the party who would love that role (and a lot of individuals who have the experience needed to fill it!). However, I could imagine that he could be nominated to serve as a member of Mexico’s central bank.

MC calls for 2024 candidates

The Movimiento Ciudadano (MC) opened its candidate selection process, inviting party members and the general populace to seek candidacies in the 2024 elections.

• Pre-campaign work: Presidential aspirants must garner 500,000 supporting signatures from at least 16 of the 32 Mexican states.
• Legislative blueprint: Aspirants for federal congressional offices must present a Legislative Agenda Project, defining their policy objectives.
• Key dates: Presidential hopefuls to register by November 12; Congressional candidates can register between November 13-16. The final decisions on candidates will be rendered on January 19 for the presidency and February 4 and February 19, 2024 for senators and federal deputies, respectively.

What’s Ebrard doing next?

On October 23, Dante Delgado, the national leader of the Movimiento Ciudadano (MC) said Marcelo Ebrard remains a prospective presidential candidate for the party with Nuevo Léon governor Samuel Garcia also an option.

• Candidate choices: García is the party’s internal favorite, but Ebrard could bring a lot of attention to the party.
• MC's stance: Delgado wants the MC to act as the real alternative to Morena, a challenge it is unlikely to live up to, given its smaller size and the perception that it will split the opposition vote away from the opposition coalition seeking to dethrone Morena.
• Why would the MC pick Ebrard? Ebrard has a strong reputation, is charismatic, and could offer Morena voters an alternative to the major parties.
• Realistically, I would wager that the MC does not expect to win the 2024 election regardless of their candidate choice. Instead, they want to increase their national profile.
• A big name like Ebrard at the top of the ticket could mean more votes for the party, which would help them improve their odds at other offices.
• Limited time left: Ebrard must decide if he will seek to be nominated as the MC’s presidential candidate before November 12.
• Decision dilemma: Ebrard still is waiting for Morena to clarify its stance on his claims that its internal process for selecting a candidate was marked by irregularities.
• Morena’s view: The party’s leader, Mario Delgado, remains optimistic that Ebrard will continue to support his party, despite longstanding questions around Ebrard’s future political affiliation.
• A bigger shift: Dozens of Morena’s pro-Ebrard congress members also threatened to leave their party and switch to the MC if Morena does not support an inquiry into the candidate selection process and Ebrard’s allegations that the race was tilted in Sheinbaum’s favor.  

Morena to Unveil Gubernatorial Candidates List on November 10

Morena plans to unveil its gubernatorial candidates by November 10, according to the party’s national leader Mario Delgado.

• Why now? The party is required to do so by the INE.

Latest presidential polls

Sheinbaum Leads by 18 Points: EF Poll

Sheinbaum continues to lead with a commanding 18 points over Xóchitl Gálvez, per El Financiero's latest survey.

• Numbers Game: Sheinbaum holds 46% of voter preferences, while Gálvez sits at 28%. Meanwhile, potential MC candidate Samuel García scrapes up 8%, leaving 18% of voters undecided.
• Scenario shift: If Marcelo Ebrard enters the fray, the figures slightly change, and Sheinbaum leads with a 19-point gap over Gálvez, suggesting that most Ebrard could draw more support from the opposition coalition.
• Favorability ratings: Some 46% of voters have favorable opinions of Sheinbaum, while just 30% feel similarly about Gálvez.
• Still time for change: Electoral campaigns have not yet officially begun, and Gálvez’s name recognition likely remains relatively low.

Electoral authorities & rules

Electoral calendar shifts; pre-campaign auditing impacted

The INE's pre-campaign auditing window will be restricted to 40 days from the previous 57, limiting the time allocated to the INE to audit parties’ funds ahead of the official launch of federal campaigns on March 1.

• Less enforcement expected: The revised timeline could strain the INE's capacity to vet the source, amount, and allocation of political financing, potentially affecting the audit quality and reducing fairness in the election.
• Despite concerns, the INE’s leadership says they will meet the targets.
• Still, other INE counselors warned that the INE will be under pressure without additional resources.
• Why the shift? The INE changed its window for auditing campaign finances after the TEPJF directed it to do so.

Private funding caps for 2024 races

In a bid to curb illicit funds in campaigns, the INE announced that parties cannot collect more than MX$132 million from private donors ahead of the 2024 federal election.

• Donation details: Parties can amass up to MX$42 million from supporters.
• Individual limits: Single donations will be capped at MX$2 million per party.
• Guiding principle: Total private funding in any form cannot exceed the total public funding allotted for parties.

Independent institutions criticize limited funding in 2024

The two electoral authorities, the INE and TEPJF, criticized Morena’s plans to slash their 2024 budgets. They were joined in their criticism by other independent institutions like the judiciary and National Institute for Access to Public Information and Data Protection (INAI), which also face cuts in the 2024 budget.

• What they say: Critics and the impacted institutions say the lack of autonomy over their budgets undermines the separation of powers, democracy, and transparency and risks their operational capacity.
• Electoral authorities speak: The TEPJF's Reyes Rodríguez Mondragón warned a cut of MX$767 million could severely hamper the Tribunal’s ability to hire and enforce rules ahead of the election.
• Opposition speaks: Opposition federal deputies called the cuts to funding "punishment" by Morena.
• Impacts: All the affected federal agencies have seen budget cuts during President López Obrador’s term. The electoral authorities have been particularly targeted by Morena, which has regularly sought to undermine electoral bodies’ autonomy and funding.
• Budget cuts could impact the ability of the INE and TEPJF to ensure a fair election in 2024. Cuts are unlikely to severely hamper enforcement, but will likely have impacts around the edges (e.g., limiting enforcement of issues like campaign finance infringements).

INE defends 2024 budget before lawmakers

On October 25, Guadalupe Taddei, INE's chairwoman, affirmed to Congress that the body required MX$23.758 B (US$1.34 B) in 2024 to carry out the election and its general electoral monitoring responsibilities.

• Breakdown: Over MX$13 B will go to costs associated with the election and over MX$10 B will be used for regular operational expenses.
• Upcoming Elections: The 2024 elections will be the largest yet. Over 98 million voters are on the rolls, and the INE will operate 170,000 polling stations.
• Moreover, increased monitoring will be needed given gender parity across presidential and congressional races.

Electoral tribunal and electoral authorities spar over early campaigning

On October 17, the National Electoral Institute (INE) halted Claudia Sheinbaum and Xóchitl Gálvez’s campaign tours for beginning too early.

• Why the INE acted: The INE stated that the actions of the candidates — a campaign tour by Sheinbaum and a digital campaign by Gálvez — violated prohibitions on campaigning before electoral periods officially begin.  

Yes, but: On October 24, the Electoral Tribunal's (TEPJF) Superior Chamber nixed the INE's order regarding Sheinbaum's visits to various regions of Mexico. The TEPJF cited that the order infringed on her constitutional rights.

• INE's misstep: The TEPJF said the INE's measures were "unfounded" and "disproportionate". It notes that the INE’s ruling did not take all legal matters into consideration and that Sheinbaum was not calling for individuals to vote or support certain candidates.

Looking ahead: Both candidates are now being more closely monitored, with Sheinbaum's rallies being held privately and Gálvez's digital campaigning being restricted.

Campaigns will soon officially start. As noted in the last update from Next Sexenio, the official pre-campaign period will start in late November.

INE mandates parties to field at least 5 women for 9 governorships in 2024

On October 24, the INE ordered parties and coalitions to field at least five women as candidates in the nine coming gubernatorial races (including Mexico City's head of government).

• A push for gender parity: Parties will need to make their plans to ensure gender parity in campaigns at least one day before pre-campaigns begin.
• Deadline details: Each state has different deadlines for establishing candidates’ genders, ranging from November 4 for Mexico City, Jalisco, and Yucatan to February 21 for Chiapas.
• No challenges expected: The major parties appear to have backed the requirements, suggesting that the INE’s rule will move forward.
• Added requirements: In a separate decision, the INE determined that men and women candidates must be given equal amounts of resources and time on radio and TV ahead of the election.

Gálvez required to take down video

The INE ordered Senator Gálvez to take a video down from social media, which accuses Morena of "paying" for polls to boost Claudia Sheinbaum's 2024 image.

• Video accusations: The clip alleges that Morena has rigged polls to protect Sheinbaum and project her as unbeatable.
• Morena's rebuttal: The ruling party accused the candidate and her coalition of early campaigning.
• Commission's verdict: Preliminary analysis finds the video could influence public sentiment, and thus, ordered Gálvez to remove it from all platforms. It also issued a reminder to Gálvez to uphold legal and fair conduct.

TEPJF fines Ebrard over social media posts

On October 19, the Specialized Chamber of the TEPJF fined Marcelo Ebrard MX$21,748 for disseminating images on social media that compromised the privacy of children while campaigning to be Morena’s candidate.

• Fines detailed: Two posts on June 20 and 28 cost him MXN 7,261.80 and MXN 14,523.00, respectively.
• Morena's hit, as well: The TEPJF also fined Morena MX$41,496 for neglecting its duty of care. It put PVEM senator, Manuel Velasco, on alert, as well, for similar violations made on July 21.

TEPJF censures president over neutrality

An internal body at the TEPJF found that President López Obrador was in breach of political neutrality rules after comments he made in a past morning press conference.

• The overstep: Urged citizens to support Morena to secure a congressional majority.
• Ripple effect: Other government officials were given blame for broadcasting the content.
• Next steps: The case will continue to be assessed by the TEPJF’s higher authorities who will determine if further action is necessary.

INE prepares overseas voting for 2024

The INE rolled out the blueprint for the Postal Electoral Package (PEP) on October 28, which establishes how Mexicans abroad will cast their ballots in the coming federal and local elections.

• Registration: Expat voters with a valid voter ID can register on the INE's site before February 20.
• Multiple methods: Voters can select between online, postal, or in-person voting.
• Postal package: In May 2024, postal voters will receive a package containing election materials to send back by June 1.

Other intrigues

Two Morena politicians caught critiquing Mexico City mayoral candidate; blame artificial intelligence

Two Morena politicians denied participating in a smear campaign against a contender for Mexico City’s mayoral race, despite audio recordings suggesting otherwise. The two individuals said that the clips were made with artificial intelligence.  

• What happened: On November 1, amidst Morena's internal squabble over who will be Mexico City’s mayoral candidate, audio clips suggested to include the voices of Clara Brugada and Martí Batres were played, which implicate them in a smear campaign against their rival Omar García Harfuch.
• The audio clips’ contents: The clips unveil plots to dent Harfuch's soaring popularity.

Local races

MC seeks impeachment of incoming interim governor of Nuevo León

On October 26, MC deputies called for the impeachment of Arturo Salinas Garza, the interim governor-elect of Nuevo Léon after Samuel Garcia (MC) stepped down.

• The charges: The MC politicians accuse Salinas Garza of constitutional violations and usurping power.

• Why the outcry: Article 132 of Nuevo León's state constitution restricts members of the judiciary from holding other roles in the government, who sat on the state’s court prior to stepping down to become governor.
• It’s nuanced rule-breaking: Salinas Garza received permission to step down from the judiciary, but technically remains among its members and could return.
• What now? The MC threatened legal action against other legislators for appointing Salinas Garza.

Chertorivski seeks to be the MC’s candidate in Mexico City

MC politician Salomón Chertorivski wants to be his party’s candidate for mayor of Mexico City.

• Political odyssey: Chertorivski spearheaded Diconsa and later Seguro Popular (public healthcare system) under former president Vicente Fox. After, he served as Mexico City’s Health and Economic Development Secretary before becoming a federal legislator in 2018.
• Academic background: He holds degrees in economics from the Autonomous Institute of Mexico (ITAM) and in public policy from Harvard. He has also taught at various academic institutions in Mexico.
• Not likely to win: Morena has a strong position in Mexico City, and he is unlikely to dethrone it from leading the city’s government, even if the MC makes significant gains in the 2024 election.

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